India is forecast to account for 20% of growth in global food consumption over the next decade as its economy and population grow. India is poised to overtake China as the top driver of global food demand over the next decade as their economic and population trends diverge, according to recent estimates from the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Consumption of agricultural products, including animal feed and fuel, is expected to grow by an average of 1.1% a year in calorie terms over the decade through 2033, according to the Agricultural Outlook, a report produced by the FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

"Nearly 94% of the additional consumption is projected to occur in middle and low-income countries," which include India and Southeast Asian nations, as well as those in sub-Saharan Africa, the report said.

While China accounted for 28% of the increase in demand over the 10 years through 2023, that figure is forecast to plunge to just 11% for the next decade. Meanwhile, India's share is seen expanding from 13% to 20%. Sub-Saharan Africa, with its fast-growing population, is set to rise from 10% to 18%.

Consumption forecasts for staple foods reflect this shift as well. China is expected to consume 147 million tonnes of wheat in 2033, up just 2.6% from the average between 2021 and 2023. India's consumption is expected to surge 27.7% to 137 million tonnes over the same period, nearly catching up to China.

The trend is similar for rice, with Chinese consumption seen remaining nearly flat while Indian demand soars.

The forecasts stem from expectations of steep population decline as well as stagnating incomes in China. In contrast, the report expects India's population to grow and living standards to improve.

India's consumption of wheat is expected to approach that of China -- the world's largest consumer of the grain -- over the next decade.   

The potential impact of changing eating habits on these projections is difficult to predict.

Given India's large vegetarian population, the FAO-OECD report forecasts a relatively small increase in meat consumption in the country. But if that changes as the country grows wealthier, it could have a major impact on global supply and demand patterns, including for animal feed.

The report stressed reducing food loss as a way to help keep the global food supply stable. It estimated that halving supply chain losses and waste at the retail and consumer levels by 2030 could boost food intake by 10% in low-income countries and 6% in lower-middle-income countries by bringing prices down, cutting the number of undernourished people worldwide by a quarter.