Operators of large farms are losing faith in exports as an ever-growing market for U.S. crops and livestock, said a Purdue poll released on Tuesday. Only one-third of farmers surveyed for the monthly Ag Economy Barometer said they expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, down from 72% in 2020.

An agricultural lodestar since the 1970s, exports reached a record $196.4 billion in fiscal 2022, a three-fold increase in a quarter-century. One-fifth of U.S. agricultural production is sold overseas.

 “Producers’ confidence in U.S. agriculture’s exporting prowess has weakened considerably,” wrote agricultural economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, who oversee the barometer. They said the downturn in sentiment could be a factor in the 5-point decline in the barometer to a reading of 125, the same as a year earlier.

In early 2020, 72% of farmers said they expected exports to increase over the next five years. “Since then, the percentage of farmers looking for exports to grow over time has drifted lower, dipping to just 33% in the February survey,” wrote Mintert and Langemeier. “And in this month’s survey, the percentage of respondents who expect U.S. exports to decline reached 18%, providing the weakest perspective on future exports since barometer data collection began” in 2019.

While 18% of those polled expected a decline, 49% of producers expected exports to remain the same over the next five years; the combined 67% was the largest share of respondents expecting exports to hold steady or decline in four years of polling.
The USDA estimates that exports will retreat to $184.5 billion this year, down by 6%, due to softer commodity prices and smaller tonnage but still the second-highest sales tally ever. The long-term USDA baseline projects the decline will continue through 2026, due to a global economic slowdown, higher interest rates and a strong dollar, before a modest recovery begins. Exports would decline across the board, with grains and soybeans hit the hardest.